Ukraine’s hopeless resistance
The Russian victory offensive is already underway and Ukraine has neither men nor military assets nor popular support to avoid a rout on the battlefield. A negotiated settlement is the sane choice.
The lack of leadership in Washington allows our neocons to bamboozle our elected representatives and the public into supporting the Ukraine even though the war is already lost. I don’t know why, but it could be related to the 2024 presidential election. Most likely the neocons have embraced a fantastical scenario which gives Ukraine a chance. Until we elect presidents of high intellect, our government will always be deceived by the elites and their investments in the machinery of war.
The Russian strategy is working and has been clear. Hold strong defensive lines while the Ukrainians shred their forces in fruitless offensives. Even Western weapons have not provided a silver bullet, as Russian technology and strategy blunt their effectiveness. And then with Ukrainian manpower, military straegies, and public support at their lowest, Russia launches a final offensive to take Kiev and Odessa, thereby forcing a surrender.
The details of this will happen are revealed in Mark Wauck’s Substack column in which he extensively quotes John Welmer, the longest serving Western journalist in Russia. Here’s the situation as Mark presents it:
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Helmer reports that the Russian General Staff are now optimistic that their breakthrough strategy is advancing ahead of schedule—bad news for the Neocons. That strategy—as Geroman has repeatedly enunciated it—has been to first smash the Ukrainian offensive while inflicting maximum losses, and then to apply pressure along the entire line of contact, probing for weak points while the Ukrainians frantically shift reserves to plug holes. Breaks are sure to occur, and those breaks—because they will result from the expenditure of reserves—will be significant. In this article Helmer appends a report by a prominent Russian military analyst, dated January 29:
What does the offensive of Russian troops in the Kharkov region mean? By Yevgeny Krutikov
He also cites analysis by anonymous Western sources. Here’s the overview:
BREAKTHROUGH ON ALL FRONTS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
When the General Staff have been discussing with President Vladimir Putin the timing of the Russian offensive to force the Kiev regime into capitulation, it has been agreed, understood, and repeated that the strategic reserves of the Ukrainian forces should be destroyed first, together with the supply lines for the weapons and ammunition crossing the border from the US and the NATO allies.
This process, they also agreed, should take as long as required with least casualties on the Russian side, as determined by military intelligence. …
This week military sources believe there has been a turning point – on the Ukrainian battlefield, and on the Russian clock.
According to a military source outside Russia, “the Russian breakthrough is beginning to happen now. It’s being coordinated with strikes and raids along the northern border. The commitment of the ‘crack’ Ukrainian brigades at the expense of other sectors shows how desperate [General Valery] Zaluzhny is to plug the holes. He knows that the target is the isolation of Kharkov, the establishment of a demilitarized ‘buffer zone’, as well as the development of a situation whereby all Ukrainian forces east of the Dnieper are threatened with being cut off… and he’s quickly running out of ammunition, not to mention cannon fodder.”
“By the end of the winter,” the source has added overnight, “the Ukrainians will barely be able to move along the roads they use to feed the front due to the Russian drone, missile, conventional air, and artillery strikes. Once they can no longer plug the gaps with mechanized units acting as fire-fighting brigades, it’s just a matter of time before the big breakthroughs and encirclements begin. At the current burn rate of Ukrainian forces, I imagine we’ll start seeing Russian tanks with fuel tanks fitted for extended range appearing and Russian airborne troops making air assaults in the Ukrainian rear within weeks.”
Behind the defensive fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an open field for tens of kilometres opens up on a whole group of sites. Kiev’s military reserves are gradually being squandered, and there is practically no human materiel left to plug the holes. ...
There is another problem: the attrition of officers. Western military personnel cannot replace this crucial resource — they can only be used to service technically complicated weapons systems such as air defence or long-range artillery. ...
There are other factors weakening the Ukrainian defence, but they are not directly related to military operations. For example, the Western sponsors are really concerned about the corruption of the Ukrainian leadership. The inspections and audits which are taking place in Kiev on this issue right now are preventing Ukraine from building new defensive lines swiftly enough.
Another non-military factor: political discord among the various factions of the Ukrainian authorities. The premonition of defeat is triggering a drop in morale, not only in the troops, but also in the elites.
Partial tactical successes must at some point turn into a major breakthrough in the enemy’s defence. Moreover, we are talking about such a breakthrough that will not stop in just two or three days at the next defensive line, but will lead inevitably, precisely, to the collapse of the front. This is exactly what the efforts of the Russian Armed Forces are now aimed at, probing for the weaknesses in Ukrainian defensive positions.
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Russia not only knows it can’t lose, but is determined it won’t lose no matter what surprises the West tries to throw at them. The only question is Ukraine’s will to continue to exist as a nation. Their best deal can be had now, when Putin is willing to negotiate and they still have most of their territory intact. Delay will put Russia in position to take it all and then, for sure, Poland, Hungary and other lame NATO nations will seize the west Ukraine territories that belonged to them prior to WW2.
And yet the drumbeat goes on, especially in the EU, to keep the war going withou hope.
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